Jul 23 2008
International Trade
From the 1940s until the mid-1970s, foreign trade took a back seat to domestic production in Mexican economic policy. Following the lead of thinkers such as Raúl Prébisch of the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America, Mexico pursued import substitution industrialization (ISI), a set of policies implemented by an activist, interventionist state designed to encourage the domestic production of previously imported manufactured goods. Economic growth in the postwar decades was driven overwhelmingly by industrial production for the domestic market, rather than for export. The total value of imports and exports amounted to only 5 percent of GDP in 1946, increasing to 10 percent in 1950, and remaining at around 15 percent throughout the next two decades. From the mid-1970s onward the volume of trade increased dramatically, led first by increasing imports, and then complemented by increasing petroleum exports at the beginning of the 1980s. Mexico ran a trade deficit every year but one from 1950 until 1981. From 1982 to 1988 Mexico began to register trade surpluses, reflecting the drastic cuts in imports (especially of consumer goods) imposed by the 1982 debt crisis. Mexico’s trade balance again became negative in the early 1990s, owing to the appreciation of the peso, but the dramatic depreciation of December 1994 reversed the trend once again.
The United States has long been Mexico’s most important trading partner for both imports and exports, owing to its proximity and the enormous size of the U.S. economy compared to Mexico’s. In the 1940s, the United States accounted for about 75 percent of Mexico’s exports and over 80 percent of its imports. After the Korean War these figures declined somewhat, and the importance of Europe and Latin America in Mexican trade increased. In the early 1980s the United States accounted for less than two-thirds of Mexico’s exports (although, when petroleum is not counted, the percentage was higher) and imports. These percentages began to rise again in the early 1990s. Implementation of NAFTA in 1994 gave further encouragement to U.S. predominance in Mexican foreign trade.